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1196
JOSS :
Journal of Social Science
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM LEGALIZATION OF DISTRIBUTION
SUBSTATION WITH PRIORITY WEIGHTING BAYES METHOD
Andryas Yuli Anggoro
1
, Sudarso K. Wiryono
2
Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia
E-mail: [email protected]
1
2
KEYWORDS
Distribution
Substation,
Legalization, dan
Bayes Method
ABSTRACT
PT PLN Batam is a national company operating in the field of electricity in
the Batam region. As of December 2023, the number of customers is
367,709. Electricity consumption on Batam Island continues to increase
with an average annual growth of 6.39% (2013-2023), and the average
customer growth is 4.07% per year (2013-2023). This growth is
accompanied by an increase in the assets of electricity distribution
equipment, especially distribution substations. Distribution substations in
PT PLN Batam consist of two types: concrete distribution substations and
portal distribution substations. The total number of distribution substations
as of December 2023 is 1,849. Distribution substations are vital distribution
assets, requiring proper handling, especially regarding legal ownership of
the land occupied by the substations. Land issues primarily occur in
locations where distribution substations are situated in business centers or
along main road medians. With the continuous increase in distribution
substations, land legalization issues also escalate. To mitigate the risk of
these land issues, PT PLN Batam implements the Decision Support System
for the Legalization of Distribution Substations with Priority Weighting
Bayes Method. This method, a qualitative approach, involves ranking
distribution substations based on the highest to lowest risk. The goal of
implementing the Bayes method is for the company to prioritize which
distribution substations need to be legalized first and minimize land dispute
issues in the future.
INTRODUCTION
Electrical energy consumption on the island of Batam continues to increase at an average
growth of 6.39% per year (2013-2023), with growth in the number of customers on average of
4.07% per year (2013-2023). Significant growth is in line with the increase in asset distribution
in one distribution substation (Berger, 2013).
Distribution substations in PT PLN Batam consist of concrete substations and substation
portal packages. Where the number of distribution substations until December 2023 was as
many as 1,849 pieces. The development of the number of distribution substations from 2013
to 2023 can be seen in Figure 1. Distribution substation is one vital asset distribution, so the a
need for good handling of these assets, especially in terms of legal ownership of the land from
the distribution substation (Lind et al., 2008).
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Figure 1
Graph Growth of Distribution Substation PT PLN Batam 20134 – 2023
Along with the continued increase in Distribution Substation, problems in legalizing
their land are also growing. One of the problems of the land distribution substation that
occurred in PT PLN Batam is the Wiramustika Distribution Substation. CV Wiramustika has
been billed as the owner of the land rental fee to PT PLN Batam for the Distribution
Substation owned by PT PLN Batam standing in his field site, the amount of the bill is valued
at Rp 120 million/year (Daihani, 2001).
Land issues such as this should establish PT PLN Batam has the urgency to resolve any
legality to its distribution substation. besides the Wiramustika Distribution Substation,
Distribution Substation many more which have similar problems. There was also a some
Distribution Substation that has been moved to another location because the distribution
substation is located at the site of an industrial development project. All the problems of this
area it should be resolved as soon as possible, so as not to cause problems in the future.
The objectives and benefits of the research are as follows:
1. The company can prioritize which Distribution Substations will be legalized first.
2. To prevent land dispute issues, such as those that occurred at the Wiramustika Distribution
Substation, from happening at other Distribution Substations.
3. Cost efficiency in land legalization for the long term.
METHOD RESEARCH
Bayes method is a technique that can be used to perform the analysis in the decision
making the best of several alternatives to produce an optimal acquisition. To produce the
optimal decision consider a variety of criteria (Putro et al., 2020).
Baye's decision-making method is done by quantifying the likelihood of an event and
expressed by a number between 0 and 1 or scale conversion. But often it is regarded as a
personal or subjective probability Bayes where weights are based on the level of trust,
confidence, experience, and background of the decision-makers (Sari et al., 2021).
Bayes equation used to calculate the value of each alternative is often simplified to:
1106
1188
1293
1368
1429
1555
1585
1639
1693
1763 1849
0
1000
2000
JUMLAH GARDU
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Decision Support System Legalization Of Distribution
Substation With Priority Weighting Bayes Method
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Where Total Value
i
is the final total value of the i
th
alternative, Value
ij
is the value of the
i
th
alternative at the j
th
criteria, Crit
j
is the importance level (weight) of the j
th
criteria, i =
1,2,3,…n; n is the number of alternatives, j = 1,2,3,…m; m is the number of criteria.
The probability is obtained from an initial information can be subjective or objective.
The value of these opportunities can be improved by the additional information obtained from
a number of experiments. Initial information about the value of this opportunity is called prior
distribution, while the value of the opportunities that are being improved with additional
information is called posterior odds.
The stages of the research method used in conducting the study consist of four phases, namely:
1. Problem Identification, This is the initial stage of the research, aimed at formulating
problems through observation (Hermawan, 2005).
2. Data Collection, Steps taken to gather the necessary data for testing using the chosen
method. Additionally, data collection involves reading references such as scientific journals
or e-books as language references to support the upcoming research (Kadarsah & Ramdani,
2002).
3. Calculation and Analysis of Data, Using the Bayesian method to calculate and analyze the
data to obtain risk ranking results according to predefined criteria (Gelman et al., 1995).
4. Implementation, This phase involves applying the risk ranking results obtained through the
Bayesian method to the distribution substation owned by PT PLN Batam, prioritizing them
for legalization (Ramadhani et al., 2021).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Bayes Criteria
Decision-making is an election action 'a' from a group of possible actions (A). Selection of
action must be to know the result of the actions selected, which is usually a function of the status of
the situation (state of nature). Status θ situation illustrates the real situation or circumstances in
which the action will be applied (Supriono, 2017).
The value of the performance of each action 'a' and θ status of the situation is described by using
a pay-off matrix, which is shaped like the Table below:
θ is the status of the situation which can be either the condition, the selection criteria, or
the requirements of the election, 'a' can be in the form of action, strategy, or choice, whereas
'x' is the value of the appearance of each action and the status of the situation. If the unit (unit)
of every 'x' equals, then this matrix can be calculated directly for the election of the action. But
if the unit of 'x' is not the same, this matrix must be transformed first into the form of a
Comparative Performance Index (CPI), the way is to determine the minimum value for each
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row (each status of the situation), and set the minimum value is equal to one hundred. Then
another value in the same lanes as compared to the minimum value. A result of the selected
action can be measured by assuming the existence of a function loss (loss function) with the
symbol l(a, θ) which reflects the losses suffered when selecting the action 'a' on the status of
the situation θ, and defined for each the combination of 'a' and θ (Daihani, 2001).
Decision-making is done without a trial aided by the use of value opportunities before a
procedure called Bayes criteria. In this procedure, the decision-maker will select the action that
minimizes the alleged losses (expected loss) which is evaluated according to the prior
probability value (Pertiwi, 2013). The calculation of the alleged loss l(a) for discrete θ is:
For all k.
The calculation of the alleged loss for continuous θ is:
Bayes Procedure
Data obtained from the experimental results can be used in the decision-making process
(Sebayang, 2014). The posterior probability distribution of θ is a conditional probability
distribution of θ with a given X = x. The decision sought to first calculate the posterior
probability distribution of θ for each X = x, after the selected action to minimize the losses
alleged l
n
(a) which is similar to the risk statement, including the cost of the experiment. For θ
discrete alleged loss calculation is:
Where
is the distribution of discrete posterior probability. For continuous θ, expressn
the posterior probability distribution
, the calculation of the alleged loss is:
Application of Bayes Method on PT PLN Batam
Application of Bayes Method in PT PLN Batam is a process of selection of the Distribution
Substation PT PLN Batam, amounting to a total of 1,849 pieces to be performed at a later
legalization so that the risk to the issue of legalization of land mainly Distribution Substation can
be reduced. The selection process with Bayesian method is classified based on several criteria,
among which:
a.
Land Position
Based on the analysis results, several data on the positions of PLN Batam's distribution
substation land were obtained. The location of the substation land consists of 5 positions with
scores arranged from the highest risk (score 5) to the lowest risk (score 1). Further details can
be seen in Table 1.
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Table 1
Land Position
Weight Score
Land Position
5
central business district
4
the outskirts of the business district
3
Industrial land
2
Government land
1
residence
b.
Risk of Lawsuit
Based on the analysis of the risk of lawsuit criteria, 5 risks are ranked by score from the
most likely probability to occur (score 5) to the least likely probability (score 1). Further details
can be seen in Table 2.
Table 2
Risk of Lawsuit
Weight Score
Risk of Lawsuit
5
Very high probability
4
High probability
3
Moderate probability
2
Low probability
1
Very low probability
c.
Risk of Displacement by the Government
Based on the analysis of the Risk of Displacement by the Government, it can be
qualitatively categorized based on 5 risks with scores arranged from the location most at risk
of displacement (score 5) to the least risk of displacement (score 1). Further details can be seen
in Table 3.
Table 3
Risk of Displacement by the Government
Weight Score
Risk of Displacement by the
Government
5
Main street median (national/province)
4
Sub-main street median (city/district)
3
Side of main street (national/province)
2
Side of sub-main street (city/district)
1
Residential roadside
Data Processing
Data of Distribution Substation number as many as 1,849 pieces will be weighted using
Bayes method, will be selected next 14 Distribution Substation with the highest number of
alternative values. this is because PT PLN Batam in 2023 to target only for the completion of land
distribution substation as many as 14 pieces.
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The calculation of the weighting matrix using the Bayesian method for the distribution
substation of PT PLN Batam can be seen in Table 4 & table 5.
Table 4
Distribution Substation
Alternatives
Criteria (weight)
0.3
0.4
0.3
Land
Position
Risk of
Lawsuit
Risk of Displacement
by the Government
GH Wiramustika
5
5
3
GD. Kampung Utama 2
5
4
4
GD Simpang jam batu
batam
4
4
5
GD Simpang Pandan
Wangi
4
4
5
GD Bumi Indah Ballyson
5
4
4
GD Nagoya City Centre
5
4
4
GD Komplek
Wiramustika
4
4
3
GD Mak Ateh
4
4
3
GH Batam
Center/Barelang
4
3
4
GH Mukakuning
4
3
4
GH Sagulung
4
3
3
GH Simpang Bandara
4
3
3
GD Polaris Sakti
4
3
3
GD Casanova
4
3
3
Table 4 shows the scoring results of PLN Batam's distribution substations according to
three criteria of the Bayesian method (land position, risk of lawsuit, and risk of displacement
by the government). The determination of these scores is done qualitatively based on field
surveys and discussions with experts.
By using Bayes formula, the resulting value of alternatives are shown in the table below:
Table 5
Distribution Substation
Alternatives
Alternative
Value
Priority
Index
GH Wiramustika
4.4
1
GD. Kampung Utama 2
4.3
2
GD Simpang jam batu batam
4.3
3
GD Simpang Pandan Wangi
4.3
4
GD Bumi Indah Ballyson
4.3
5
GD Nagoya City Centre
4.3
6
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GD Komplek Wiramustika
3.7
7
GD Mak Ateh
3.7
8
GH Batam Center/Barelang
3.6
9
GH Mukakuning
3.6
10
GH Sagulung
3.3
11
GH Simpang Bandara
3.3
12
GD Polaris Sakti
3.3
13
GD Casanova
3.3
14
From the calculation of Bayes Formula, produced the highest to the lowest value of
alternatives such as the table 5.
CONCLUSION
When Using Bayes Method, PT PLN Batam has conducted scientific decision-making
process that can be responsible for the accountability. because by using this method, the
management of PT PLN Batam can prioritize Distribution Substation to be legalized, so
according to the Pareto principle, which is by focusing on the 20% main problem, it will be
able to complete 80% of the risks that exist. In addition, the process is carried out with the aim
that the problems as happened in Distribution Substation Wiramustika not occur in other
distribution substation.
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Copyright holders:
Andryas Yuli Anggoro
1
, Sudarso K. Wiryono
2
(2024)
First publication right:
JoSS - Journal of Social Science
This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0
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