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JOSS :
Journal of Social Science
THE IMPACT OF RUSSIA'S INVASION OF UKRAINE ON CAPITAL MARKET
REACTION IN ENERGY SECTOR COMPANIES LISTED ON THE INDONESIA
STOCK EXCHANGE
Mega Mustika Sari
1
, Silvia Nirmala Dewi
2
, Anika Sari
3
, Janiman
4
Universitas Swadaya Gunung Jati, Indonesia
1
2
,
3
4
KEYWORDS
Abnormal Return,
Trading Volume
Activity, Capital Market
Reaction
ABSTRACT
This study was conducted to analyze whether the declaration of Russia's
invasion of Ukraine has an impact on capital market reactions in energy
sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange so that investors
and potential investors become more careful in making decisions regarding
investment in a company. The type of research used is a comparative
method to test differences from the variables used in the study with a
quantitative approach in the form of stock price data, stock volume, and also
the number of shares outstanding in the energy sector stocks of the Indonesia
Stock Exchange which are then processed into abnormal return data, trading
volume activity. Observations were made 5 days before and 5 days after the
invasion on February 24, 2022, using the T-test and Wilcoxon Signed Ranks
test with a sample of 29 companies and a total of 145 data tested. In the test
results, there are abnormal differences in return and trading volume activity
before and after the invasion of Russia and Ukraine, this proves that market
reaction to the events of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has strong
information content and causes an increase in buying and selling activity
which means investors respond to events that occur so that the market reacts.
INTRODUCTION
Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Ukraine has a desire to join NATO, which
is the North Atlantic defense organization. The United States imposed economic sanctions on
Russia because of the invasion (Huka and Kelen, 2022). Due to Russia's position as one of the
largest exporters of energy commodities, sanctions will have a major impact on the prices of
crude oil, coal, and natural gas around the world. In the crude oil market, Russia ranks second
as the largest exporter, while natural gas and coal rank fifth and third as the world's largest
exporters. As a result, sanctions will affect the supply of these commodities (Tambunan et al.,
2023).
The invasion caused an increase in fuel prices which could result in several economic
activities such as the price of consumer goods and product distribution becoming more
expensive than before. The increase in economic activity affects the country because it can
cause inflation and can hamper a country's economic growth. The economy of a country,
especially Indonesia, is not limited to the economy, it also pays attention to social, political,
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Vol 3, No 1 January 2024
The Impact Of Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine On Capital Market
Reaction In Energy Sector Companies Listed On The Indonesia
Stock Exchange
https://joss.al-makkipublisher.com/index.php/js
and other aspects. Under these circumstances, events abroad such as conflict or invasion can
have a direct impact on the Indonesian economy, including the investment industry and share
prices of Indonesian multinational companies (Huka and Kelen, 2022).
Table 1
Energy Sector Companies Listed on IDX Before Russia's Invasion of Ukraine February 23,
2022
Number
Company Name
Lowest
Vol.
Change%
1
MEDC
560
44,77M
-1,75%
2
ITMG
23,425
4,48M
+3,34%
3
ELSA
292
63,01M
-2,01%
4
TINS
1.460
22,72M
+1,03%
5
ENRG
168
200,56M
-5,56%
6
ADRO
2,240
140,57M
+4,04%
7
INDY
2,060
33,14M
+1,46%
8
BYAN
3,600
832,00K
+2,78%
(Source: www.Investing.com)
Table 2
Energy Sector Companies Listed on IDX During Russia's Invasion of Ukraine February 24,
2022
Number
Company Name
Lowest
Vol.
Change%
1
MEDC
565
622,81M
+13,39%
2
ITMG
24,275
19,45M
+12,51%
3
ELSA
290
1,01B
+12,33%
4
TINS
1.480
216,51M
+9,86%
5
ENRG
162
763,33M
+7,65%
6
ADRO
2,320
286,84M
+6,90%
7
INDY
2.050
129,57M
+7,18%
8
BYAN
3,638
947,00K
0,00%
( Source: www.Investing.com )
Table 3
Energy Sector Companies Listed on IDX After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
February 25, 2022
Number
Company Name
Lowest
Vol.
Change%
1
MEDC
595
226,30M
-5,51%
2
ITMG
26,650
8,34M
-1,11%
3
ELSA
308
307,32M
-4,88%
4
TINS
1.560
85,32M
-1,55%
5
ENRG
171
349,79M
-6,56%
6
ADRO
2,450
218,03M
-1,21%
The Impact Of Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine On Capital Market
Reaction In Energy Sector Companies Listed On The Indonesia
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7
INDY
2,220
87,81M
-0,45%
8
BYAN
3,705
451,00K
+1,49%
(Source: www.Investing.com)
Based on Table 2, Russia's invasion of Ukraine greatly impacted stock prices on the
Indonesia Stock Exchange, especially energy sector companies so there were several
companies whose share prices strengthened such as MEDC increased by 13.39%, ITMG
increased by 12.51%, ELSA increased by 12.33%, TINS increased by 9.86%, ENRG
increased by 7.65%, then ADRO and INDY increased by 7.18%. In addition, there is a
company that at the time of the Russian invasion of Ukraine there was no reaction, namely
BYAN whose shares did not strengthen or weaken.
An efficient capital market presents all information about the price of the securities
traded. Capital markets become more efficient the faster new information is reflected in stock
prices (Apriyadi et al., 2022). An information or an event that occurs will affect the reaction
of the capital market because with the information or events that occur investors will increase
or decrease their shares in the company so that it will affect the ups and downs of stock prices.
Signal theory helps interpret the way management communicates with investors so that
investors can consider the company's situation (Trisnadewi, 2023). The event study method
is used to examine the content of information about an event to measure market efficiency.
An efficient market shows that they respond to information quickly (Yulianti et al., 2023).
According to Hartono (2018) in (Tambunan et al., 2023) the market reaction can be seen
from changes in stock trading volume and abnormal returns.
Abnormal Return is usually used as a basis for evaluating market efficiency and usually
occurs after the announcement of events (Afdhal et al., 2022). If the return obtained is greater
than the expected return, it means an abnormal positive return; conversely, if the return
obtained is smaller than the expected return, it means an abnormal negative return
(Andriansyah and Irwandi, 2023) . It is possible to use a calculation called "trading volume
activity" to find out how the capital market responds to certain information by looking at the
movement of stock trading volume activity in the capital market (Laluraa et al., 2022).
Research conducted by (Kurniawan and Sudirman, 2023) states that the Russian
invasion of Ukraine made a significant abnormal difference in returns before and after the
invasion. Meanwhile, research (Mursit et al., 2022) states that there is no significant
difference in the average abnormal return value obtained by investors before and after the
announcement of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Research conducted by (Pakederan et al., 2023) states that the Russian invasion of
Ukraine resulted in significant differences in Trading Volume Activity in Food and Beverage
companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange before and after the invasion. Meanwhile,
research (Emelia et al., 2022) states that there is no difference in trading volume activity
before and after the announcement of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This study was conducted to show whether information regarding the declaration of
the Russian invasion of Ukraine affected the reaction of the energy sector stock market by
testing energy sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange 5 days before the
invasion and 5 days after the invasion using abnormal returns and trading volume activity as
Vol 3, No 1 January 2024
The Impact Of Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine On Capital Market
Reaction In Energy Sector Companies Listed On The Indonesia
Stock Exchange
https://joss.al-makkipublisher.com/index.php/js
a benchmark for market reaction. This research is expected to help investors and potential
investors to analyze whether the declaration of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has an impact
on the share price of companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange so that investors and
potential investors become more careful in making decisions related to investing in a
company.
METHOD RESEARCH
The type of research used is a comparative method to test the differences of the variables
used in the study with a quantitative approach in the form of stock price data, stock volume,
and also the number of shares outstanding in the energy sector stocks of the Indonesia Stock
Exchange which are then processed into abnormal return data, trading volume activity.
The population in this study are all shares listed on the energy sector Indonesia Stock
Exchange which amounted to 72 companies then drew samples using purposive sampling with
the criteria including listed in the energy sector on the IDX, not doing corporate action during
the study, having data available for analysis, publishing financial reports during the study
period, and data available for use. After withdrawing the sample, the number of companies
became 29. Due to observations from 5 days before and 5 days after the Russian invasion of
Ukraine, the data to be tested is 145. The data source used in this study is secondary data
accessed from the Indonesia Stock Exchange website (https://idx.co.id).
In testing this research, if the data is normally distributed, the data analysis technique that
will be used is the paired sample t-test, and if the data is not normally distributed, it will use
the Wilcoxon Signed Ranks test.
Operational Definition of Variables
Abnormal Return
Source : Pakederan et al., 2023
Information :
RTNi,t: Abnormal Return of i-shares on the T-day
Rit: Actual Return of i-shares on the T-day
E[Ri,t]: Expected Return of i-shares on the t-day
Trading Volume Activity
Source : Pakederan et al., 2023
Information :
TVAit: Trading Volume Activity of stock I at time t
RTNi,t = Rit E[Ri,t]
TVAit =
stock i traded at time t
stock i outstanding at time t
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Reaction In Energy Sector Companies Listed On The Indonesia
Stock Exchange
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RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Descriptive Analysis
Descriptive analysis is the initial stage carried out to analyze this research. Table 4 below
shows the calculation results in the form of average value (mean), minimum value, maximum
value, and standard deviation for Abnormal Return and Trading Volume Activity during the
observation period.
Table 4
Descriptive Analysis of Abnormal Return
Descriptive Statistics
N
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
Std. Deviation
AR before
145
-,597
1,055
-,00645
,108152
AR after
145
-,121
,291
,00354
,051848
Valid N (listwise)
145
Source: Data Processed (2024)
Based on Table 4 N or the number of samples tested Abnormal Return before and after
the Russian invasion of Ukraine amounted to 145, having an average of -0.00645 with a
minimum value of -0.597 and a maximum value of 1.055, and a standard deviation of 0.108152.
The abnormal return after the Russian invasion of Ukraine has an average of 0.00354 with a
total minimum value of -0.121, a maximum value of 0.291, and a standard deviation of
0.051848.
Table 5
Descriptive Analysis of Trading Volume Activity
Descriptive Statistics
N
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
Std. Deviation
TVA before
144
,000
,175
,00970
,026163
TVA after
145
,000
,140
,01405
,022864
Valid N (listwise)
144
Source: Data Processed (2024)
Based on Table 5 N or the number of samples tested Trading Volume Activity before the
Russian invasion of Ukraine amounted to 144, it has an average of 0.00970, with a minimum
value of 0.000 and a maximum value of 0.175, and a standard deviation of 0.026163. Trading
Volume Activity after the Russian invasion of Ukraine averaged 0.01405 with a minimum total
value of 0.000 a maximum value of 0.140 and a standard deviation of 0.022864.
Normality Test
The normality test is used to determine whether data is normally distributed or not, which
is done with the Shapiro-Wilk Test used in this test based on a significance level of 0.05. The
basis for decision-making is:
1. If the significance level > 0.05, it means that the data is normally distributed.
2. If the significance level < 0.05, it means that the data is not normally distributed.
Vol 3, No 1 January 2024
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Reaction In Energy Sector Companies Listed On The Indonesia
Stock Exchange
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Table 6
Abnormal Return Data Normality Test Results
Tests of Normality
Kolmogorov-Smirnov
a
Shapiro-Wilk
Statistic
df
Sig.
Statistic
df
Sig.
AR before
,303
145
,000
,360
145
,000
AR after
,152
145
,000
,875
145
,000
Source: Data Processed (2024)
From the table it is known that the significance value of Abnormal Return before the
Russian invasion of Ukraine is 0.000 <0.05, it can be concluded that the data is not normally
distributed. The significance value of Abnormal Return after the Russian invasion of Ukraine
is 0.000 <0.05, it can be concluded that the data is not normally distributed.
Table 7
Trading Volume Activity Data Normality Test Results
Tests of Normality
Kolmogorov-Smirnov
a
Shapiro-Wilk
Statistic
df
Sig.
Statistic
df
Sig.
TVA before
,355
144
,000
,386
144
,000
TVA after
,271
144
,000
,610
144
,000
Source: Data Processed (2024)
From the table it is known that the significance value of Trading Volume Activity before
the Russian invasion of Ukraine was 0.000 < 0.05, it can be concluded that the data is not
normally distributed. The significance value of Trading Volume Activity after the Russian
invasion of Ukraine is 0.000 < 0.05, so it can be concluded that the data is not normally
distributed.
Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test
In this study, two hypotheses were tested using the Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test. The
results of hypothesis testing can be concluded that with a significance value> 0.05, the
hypothesis is rejected. The results of the Wilcoxon Signed Ranks test on the first hypothesis
are presented in Tables 8 and 9 below:
Table 8
Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test Abnormal Return Data
Ranks
N
Mean Rank
Sum of Ranks
AR after AR before
Negative Ranks
50
a
71,31
3565,50
Positive Ranks
89
b
69,26
6164,50
Ties
6
c
Total
145
a. AR after < AR before
b. AR after > AR before
c. AR after = AR before
Source: Data Processed (2024)
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Reaction In Energy Sector Companies Listed On The Indonesia
Stock Exchange
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The table shows that the number of negative ranks is 50 samples, with a mean rank of
71.31 and a sum rank of 3,565.50. This means that 50 samples are experiencing a decrease in
Abnormal Return. The mean Rank or the average decrease is 71.31. The number of negative
ranks is 3,565.50. While the number of positive ranks is 89 samples with a mean rank of 69.26
and a sum rank of 6,164.50. This means that 89 samples are experiencing an increase in
Abnormal Return. The mean Rank or average increase is 69.26. While the number of positive
ranks is 6,164.50. Ties are the similarity of values before and after the Russian invasion of
Ukraine. In Table 8, the value of ties is 6, so it can be concluded that there is the same value
between Abnormal Returns before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Table 9
Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test Results in Abnormal Return Data
Test Statistics
AR after AR before
Z
-2,732
b
Asymp. Sig. (2-
tailed)
,006
a. Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test
b. Based on negative ranks.
Source: Data Processed (2024)
Table 9 shows that the z-score result is -2.732 with a significance value of 0.006 <0.05,
it can be concluded that hypothesis 1 can be accepted, which means that there is a difference
in Abnormal Return before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Wilcoxon Signed
Ranks test results for the second hypothesis can be seen in Tables 10 and 11 below:
Table 10
Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test Trading Volume Activity Data
Ranks
N
Mean Rank
Sum of Ranks
TVA after TVA before
Negative Ranks
26
a
70,75
1839,50
Positive Ranks
111
b
68,59
7613,50
Ties
7
c
Total
144
a. TVA after < TVA before
b. TVA after > TVA before
c. TVA after = TVA before
Source: Data Processed (2024)
The table shows that the number of negative ranks is 26 samples, with a mean rank of
70.75 and a sum of ranks of 1,839.50. This means that 26 samples experienced a decrease in
Trading Volume Activity. The mean rank or average decrease is 70.75. However, the number
of negative ranks is 1,839.50. While the number of positive ranks is 111 samples with a mean
rank of 68.59 and a sum of ranks of 7,613.50. This means that 111 samples are experiencing
an increase in Trading Volume Activity. The mean rank or average increase is 68.59. However,
the sum of the positive rank is 7,613.50. In the table, the value of ties is 7, so it can be concluded
Vol 3, No 1 January 2024
The Impact Of Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine On Capital Market
Reaction In Energy Sector Companies Listed On The Indonesia
Stock Exchange
https://joss.al-makkipublisher.com/index.php/js
that there is the same value between Trading Volume Activity before and after the Russian
invasion of Ukraine.
Table 11
Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test Results Trading Volume Activity Data
Test Statistics
TVA after TVA before
Z
-6,203
b
Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed)
,000
a. Wilcoxon Signed Ranks Test
b. Based on negative ranks.
Source: Data Processed (2024)
Table 11 shows the results of the z-score -6,203 with a significance value of 0.00 <0.05,
it can be concluded that Hypothesis 2 is accepted, meaning that there is a difference in average
Trading Volume Activity before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Discussion
The Wilcoxon Signed Ranks test shows that there was a difference in abnormal returns
before and after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This proves that the market reaction to the events
of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has strong information content so that investors react to the
announcement of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Seeing the market react to the
announcement of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, means that signals from the events of the
Russian invasion of Ukraine cause investors to be unable to anticipate the events that can affect
stock performance. This research is in line with (Kurniawan and Sudirman, 2023) which states
that the Russian invasion of Ukraine made a significant abnormal difference in returns before
and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Trading Volume Activity is also the same as Abnormal Return in that there are
differences before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This proves that the
announcement of Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused an increase in buying and selling
activities by investors on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. With an increase in buying and selling,
this means that investors respond to events that occur so that the market reacts. The results
support the signal theory as investors see the announcement of Russia's invasion of Ukraine as
a signal that could affect stock prices. This research is in line with (Pakederan et al., 2023)
which states that the Russian invasion of Ukraine resulted in significant differences in Trading
Volume Activity before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
CONCLUSION
Based on the results of the research that has been conducted, it can be concluded that
there are significant differences in Abnormal Return and Trading Volume Activity in 29
companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange before and after the Russian invasion of
Ukraine. The results show that the market reaction to the events of the Russian invasion of
Ukraine has a strong information content so that investors cannot anticipate and cause an
increase in buying and selling on the Indonesia Stock Exchange which causes the Indonesian
capital market to react to the announcement of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The Impact Of Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine On Capital Market
Reaction In Energy Sector Companies Listed On The Indonesia
Stock Exchange
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Further research proposals related to Indonesia's efficient capital market are expected to
add other factors that can affect the abnormal average stock return and trading volume of the
company's activity. In addition, because the sample of this study is limited, it is expected that
the next study will use all companies that have been listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange,
to reflect the real conditions.
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Copyright holders:
Mega Mustika Sari
1
, Silvia Nirmala Dewi
2
, Anika Sari
3
, Janiman
4
(2024)
First publication right:
JoSS - Journal of Social Science
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